By some accounts, another factor contributing to the increase of violence is the recent shift in power. Organizations have been working fiercely in Northern Ireland to bring the two communities together. Guerilla-style violence has also taken place within regional zones throughout the year, as those supporting the central government come into conflict with ethno-nationalist groups. While this was Abiy’s attempt at appealing toward a more unified national identity outside of his support base in Addis Ababa, opposition “federalists” largely supported by Ethiopia’s large rural populations feel that the merger forms the “structural foundation for a unitary state that will rob them off their [cultural] dignity and autonomy” (Al Jazeera, 5 December 2019). That same month, two further gunfights between security forces and armed groups erupted in the state of Guerrero and Michoacán, reportedly killing 28 people. Internationally, tension between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region escalated in 2019, as the volatile political relationship between the two countries was tested by militant attacks and frequent cross-border violence along the Line of Control (LoC). Published: 31 Dec 2020 . The more stable the community is, the more difficult it is for them to operate,” he said, adding that these groups also exist in loyalist communities. Duncairn Community Partnership (DCP), a cross-community organization committed to regenerating areas where segregation barriers exist in the predominantly Catholic, lower north Belfast area, receives funds to try and remove walls and build trust between the two communities. In response to the inquiry, the President has ratcheted up his vitriolic rhetoric, which may further fuel political violence (NPR, 5 October 2019; Reuters, 18 December 2019). Thompson said not long after moving to the area, she was punched in the face and her friend's arm was broken on one occasion by people from the other side. Mexico: High risk of cartel ‘criminal market’ developing into insurgency. Data on political violence and protest activity in Latin America and the Caribbean will be published in February 2020, at which point ACLED will begin releasing weekly real-time data updates for the region. 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2020 Friends and foes alike no longer know where the United States stands. Britain, France, and Germany have triggered a dispute resolution mechanism that could lead to the reinstatement of UN sanctions. The BDC election results were indicative of the growing dissociation between Kashmiri citizens and the BJP. Humanitarian Crises. “Why America Can’t Quit the Middle East,” Accessed March 6, 2020. A new government appointed in late January has coincided with protests developing into more violent riots. In addition to attacks on military and government targets, Al Shabaab remains the largest threat to civilians in the country, frequently targeting non-military sites and unarmed civil servants with assassinations and improvised explosives. Leaders of the Wolayta ethnic group are making a similar bid. However, after years of military offensives by American, Afghan, and Taliban forces, IS-K collapsed in the eastern province of Nangarhar – the group’s main stronghold – following the surrender of several hundred fighters and their families to the Afghan government in November (VOA, 21 November 2019). Here, we review 10 situations in which conflict is likely to change and worsen in the coming year, creating new dilemmas for governments and citizens. Frank Brennan talks about members of the Irish Republican Army killed during Northern Ireland's "troubles." Matthias J. Sulz is a Middle East Research Manager with ACLED. Directly on the other side of the colossal wall that looms over Brennan’s house is a staunch loyalist Protestant area. Five years into the conflict, the scale of destruction in Yemen has reached unprecedented levels: more than 100,000 people are estimated to have died as a direct result of the violence, including over 12,000 civilians killed in targeted attacks. IS-K could especially appeal to mid- and low-level Taliban commanders who may lose out in a peace deal, or the militants who wish to continue the fight against those who they see as infidels. Despite continued AMISOM operations and an increase in US airstrikes throughout 2019, Al Shabaab remains a major threat to Somali society and President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s government in 2020. Hayley Todd, 32, a care assistant, was visiting her mother in the house where she grew up in Short Strand. ... prompting some in Washington to worry about a potential military conflict between our two countries within the next six months. In August, allegations of police officers raping and sexually abusing women led to a demonstration movement that has become known as the “glitter protests.”. Residents in Short Strand can peer over a 20-foot wall to the Protestant side where the red, white and blue colors of the British flag take prominence — even on the street curbs — and English-language signs dot the streets. Her primary research interests are the dynamics of conflict and violence, African political environments and elite networks. My mum lives here and you just never know,” Todd said, adding that growing up in the area was difficult with so much sectarian violence. Ethiopia: At risk of increased fragmentation despite a popular leader. "A Guide to the United States’ History of Recognition, Diplomatic, and Consular Relations, by Country, since 1776: Iran," Accessed March 6, 2020. He joined ACLED in 2017 and oversees the coding of political violence and protest in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Taliban militants launched large offensives on a number of provincial capitals and against security forces to gain ground or consolidate their position. Similar violence has occurred in the Amhara region, including the successful assassination of Amhara regional leaders and the chief of staff of Ethiopia’s military. This still continues today. Causes of Boko Haram Conflict in Nigeria To download real-time and historical data for a specific actor type or a specific actor, select the relevant actor type or actor in those categories and leave all other categories as they are. The central government is weak and the nation’s politics are becoming more and more volatile. This article talks about the religious conflict that is still happening in this world and how to reduce religious violence. Country insists all people who die of virus are cremated even if it violates religious beliefs Published: 30 Dec 2020 Muslim Council of Britain challenges forced Covid cremations in Sri Lanka With minority groups in the US at increased risk of violence and intimidation, state-sanctioned targeting on the basis of nationality raises red flags. A US-Taliban accord is expected to pave the way for intra-Afghan talks to establish power-sharing arrangements and a permanent ceasefire. Though the Mexican government has repeatedly rejected US military intervention, further militarization and internationalization of the anti-drug fight could intensify violence in border areas and exacerbate the ongoing migrant crisis. Conflict can be defined as a clash or disagreement often violent between opposing groups or individuals. He implied that future acts of retaliation against the US would be carried out by these so-called ‘resistance groups’ (Independent, 12 January 2020). in Political Science and Law. It is highly unlikely that more external pressure will push them to succumb to such constraints. “There were so many people killed just walking around this area. Potentially more serious are a number of political movements that are vehemently opposed to Abiy’s ethno-nationalistic aims, including those advocating for complete succession (Ethiopian Insight, 28 September 2019). Sign up for our daily newsletter TOP OF THE WORLD and get the big stories we’re tracking delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. Al Shabaab is likely to renew attempts at de-legitimizing the Somali government through frequent attacks, and Somalia’s Gulf allies are equally likely to ramp up efforts at securing political sway ahead of the general election. These incidents culminated in an aerial battle between Indian and Pakistani forces, resulting in the downing of two aircraft in Pakistani territory, as well as the arrest of an Indian pilot by Pakistani troops. Lebanon has a long history of civil conflict involving its competing religious and ethnic factions. It is these latent conflicts that tend to be ignored and poorly understood, but increased infiltration will make an enormous difference in how risk may move beyond the Sahel. The widespread conflicts and internal division have made Ethiopia prone to intense, sporadic violence. ACLED records over 3,100 demonstration events across all 50 states, ranging from a minimum of three events in Wyoming to a maximum of almost 600 in California. She oversees the quality, production, and coverage of all ACLED data across the globe; leads research and analysis across regional teams; aids in new partnerships with local sources and users; and supports the capacity building of NGOs and conflict observatories around the world. Lately, the Central African government officially declared war against the militia groups and started their own round of attacks. “I hope eventually they will and people will learn to trust each other a wee bit more, but I don’t think they’re coming down soon.”. These confrontations could escalate as the election approaches. The barrier in the background is a peace wall separating them from the Catholic Short Strand neighborhood, east Belfast, Northern Ireland. Braden Fuller is an Africa Researcher with ACLED. Nevertheless, the conflict in Afghanistan continued to have a devastating impact on civilian lives. However, he was unable to gain the support of the Sunni-led bloc which may present obstacles to securing Western aid (BBC, 19 December 2019). The CAA is criticized by some for being exclusionary toward Muslims. The STC has extended its influence across Yemen’s southern governorate through a vast network of Emirati-backed militias, some of which are fighting against the Houthis in Ad Dali and, increasingly, against Hadi loyalists in several southern governorates. Although the Indian government has taken steps to scale back communication and security restrictions in Muslim-majority J&K, its policy towards India’s Kashmiri citizens has created more friction within an already tense relationship. The unsettled state of Afghan politics and the continued political disarray in Kabul will likely further complicate any future negotiations. Paddy Harte, chairman of the International Fund for Ireland, said that their Peace Walls program works hard at the local level to break down mental barriers and stigma around walls. “It’s so easy for things to turn. Soleimani’s death briefly unified disparate sectors of Iranian society in nationalist sentiment. Refworld is the leading source of information necessary for taking quality decisions on refugee status. Many of the dead were reported to have been ethnic minorities living in Oromia (AP, 26 October 2019). The number of reported civilian fatalities from direct or indiscriminate Taliban attacks (non-battle events) increased by more than 30%. Thank you all for helping us reach our goal of 1,000 donors. News about Religion and Belief, including commentary and archival articles published in The New York Times. “I don’t think it’s a good idea [to remove the walls], because you never know the minute something is going to be thrown over. 9. Moreover, Iran maintains a network of proxies around the region that could be mobilized to target US interests and assets, as well as those of US allies. The crisis engulfing the Sahel region of North Africa continues to worsen, with interethnic violence increasing and jihadists extending their reach. Artillery shelling, however, continued daily in violation of the tenuous agreement. In addition to high levels of impunity, untrained security forces, and the general weakness of public institutions in Mexico, the escalation of violence can be partially attributed to the fragmentation of cartels caused by law enforcement campaigns primarily targeting their leaders, an approach that was initiated during the so-called “war on drugs” declared by former President Felipe Calderon in 2006. If proper precautions are not taken, ethnic conflict and the fragility of the Ethiopian political system could lead to disaster in the 2020 election year. Political will and leadership are essential alongside the necessary ring-fenced resources and funding to enable the physical change needed.". In 2013, Northern Ireland’s government set up an initiative to remove all of them by 2023, but approximately 116 barriers remain “as visible symbols of community segregation and division,” reported the International Fund for Ireland, an organization that encourages contact and dialogue between nationalists and unionists. In addition to opposition within India to the situation in J&K, dissent against the CAA surged during the final quarter of 2019. In Short Strand, Brennan thinks things could improve between the two communities as long as Brexit does not stoke Protestant loyalism. They’re talking about bringing these walls down, but that’s definitely not going to happen.". Subscribe to our mailing list to receive the launch announcement or contact us for more information. Lauren Blaxter is a Middle East Research Manager at ACLED. All states in the Sahel are linked in the possibility that internal risks will create opportunities for distraction and overextension of state and international security agents, and collaboration of domestic armed groups with external, bordering threats.The region’s metastasizing militant networks are generating opportunities for training, arms trafficking, and recruitment across porous borders, exposing the vulnerabilities of Sahelian states like Chad and the western regions of the Central African Republic. Andrew Forsyth, who preferred not to show his face, shows the peace wall that runs through his backyard. Select the subjects you want to know more about on euronews.com As the country gears up for its first national election with universal suffrage since the outbreak of civil war in 1992, the ability to provide safety and effective governance are key to ensuring the legitimacy of the government. It is expected that, in 2020, brutal everyday violence will continue unabated, and homicide rates will break records once again. Meanwhile, clashes over territory in Ad Dali, Sadah, and Hajjah governorates continued between both sides, with Houthi forces losing control over major strategic crossroads in Ad Dali. All data for the selected actor or actor type(s) will be exported. The rise of authoritarianism — and impunity — has generated significant public reaction in the form of mass protest movements, but it has also increased the level of violence imposed upon civilians and political competition. Please note: exported data will contain additional columns including a timestamp column which indicates when the data were last updated. The number of demonstration events is also notably high in the northern Akkar governorate, where protests are typically less common than in other regions. Journalist's death stirs difficult memories of Bloody Sunday, A New Protestant beginning for the Irish language in Belfast, What the UK's new power deal means in the DUP's Belfast heartland, This tiny Northern Ireland town fears a Brexit hard border could stir more ‘Troubles’, For this city in Northern Ireland, Brexit is a big headache, Green China: Where authoritarianism and environmentalism meet, US Capitol attack exposes depth of America's problem with white extremism, China’s 'vaccine diplomacy' fills void in developing world left by US 'vaccine nationalism', Civilian labor in reconstruction: Part II. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). Nevertheless, the international commitment has avoided further offensives by the National Resistance Forces on the western front as they seem to fear damage to their fragile reputation. The splinter groups are competing violently over the existing drug trade infrastructure, but are also constantly evolving and diversifying criminal activities by engaging in kidnapping, extortion, fuel theft, and human trafficking. (Addis Standard, 23 November 2019). Splinter factions of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) led by Jaal Marroo are accused of launching several attacks on regional officials and police forces in western Oromia (BBC Amharic, 2 December 2019). 1. For three days, Iranian officials denied responsibility for the incident, before they admitted that the plane – which reportedly flew close to a military site near Tehran – was mistaken for an American cruise missile (Business Insider, 10 January 2020). Intolerance is the main cause of religious riots and conflicts not only in Nigeria but around the world. The likelihood of a successful outcome of the negotiations – which were resumed after Trump paid a surprise Thanksgiving visit to US troops in Afghanistan – is high. Many are high, harsh structures, while others are a mix of gates, mesh fencing and solid walls. Voter turnout was low: with approximately a million initial votes purged due to irregularities, only 1.8 million ballots were counted, representing less than 20% of registered voters and 12% of the total voting age population (Afghanistan Analysts, 22 December 2019). Maybe in 10 or 15 years, yes, but before they come down you need to have a government up and running who agree with each other,” Forsyth said. Such revelations from senior party leadership seem to be indicative of the myopic nature of the BJP’s popular Hindu nationalist/anti-Muslim posturing. The prospects for a tougher deal that would impose more far-reaching limitations on Iran than those agreed under the JCPOA remain slim. Republicans refuse any notion of a physical border with the Republic of Ireland and the New Irish Republican Army dissidents — who have been on the rise since the Brexit announcement — say they will attack any infrastructure raised on the border. In the beginning of 2020, Diab’s public reception as well as his ability to actually sustain a government of independent experts will be put to the test. Yemen. Brexit is also another issue on the lips of Northern Ireland’s citizens as uncertainty over the border issue has stirred tensions. Researcher Matthias Basedau says weak African states are a major cause. The second conflict is linked to the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC), a political organisation established in May 2017 that advocates for the creation of an independent state in southern Yemen. Shannon and his colleagues also criticized the slow nature of the government who placed the 2023 peace walls removal goal in 2013, saying “no thought or strategy” had gone into it. She is also Senior Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex. Find coverage on the latest global news stories, photos, and videos with various religious beliefs in mind on NBCNews.com. Violence associated with border regions and competition over resources could worsen significantly if federal forces are unable to contain the situation. Compiled by On the one hand, US and Afghan forces ramped up their ground and aerial operations: the number of aerial strikes conducted in 2019 rose by approximately 20% compared to 2018, leading to one third more reported civilian fatalities. The relatively minor missile attacks on US bases in Iraq, which according to US and Iraqi officials caused no casualties, indicate that Iran does not intend to provoke an all-out war (Washington Post, 9 January 2020). Major opposition parties boycotted the elections citing detention of party leadership and security restrictions preventing their participation in political activities leading to the elections. Current Theories About Ethnic Conflict. In one of the most violent crackdowns since the 1979 Revolution, Iranian security forces killed hundreds of demonstrators in less than a week, while arresting thousands more. He also stated that Pakistan would not back down from conflict with India (Business Recorder, 27 September 2019). In October 2019, BDC elections proceeded in J&K amidst the ongoing controversy, raising questions about the legitimacy of the political process (Hindustan Times, 30 September 2019). 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